Why we don't show a single “fair value” for GTM
Even the conservative scenario ($23.89) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 12.2%/yr | 9.5% | $23.89 |
| Base case | 15.2%/yr | 8.5% | $33.26 |
| Optimistic | 18.2%/yr | 7.5% | $47.31 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 25, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $121.51 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$2.92
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$33.26
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for GTM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $388.4M · 0.29B shares · net debt $1.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$33.26
+1038.9% vs $2.92
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 15.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $2.92; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5% | $43.03 | $47.69 | $53.50 | $60.98 | $70.95 |
| 7.5% | $34.61 | $37.67 | $41.34 | $45.83 | $51.43 |
| 8.5% | $28.62 | $30.76 | $33.26 | $36.21 | $39.74 |
| 9.5% | $24.14 | $25.71 | $27.50 | $29.56 | $31.97 |
| 10.5% | $20.67 | $21.86 | $23.19 | $24.71 | $26.43 |
