Why we don't show a single “fair value” for GTM
Even the conservative scenario ($22.92) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 10.2%/yr | 9.2% | $22.92 |
| Base case | 13.2%/yr | 8.2% | $32.26 |
| Optimistic | 16.2%/yr | 7.2% | $46.50 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $72.69 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$3.87
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$32.26
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for GTM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $388.4M · 0.29B shares · net debt $1.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$32.26
+734.7% vs $3.87
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 13.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $3.87; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.2% | $42.20 | $47.11 | $53.35 | $61.52 | $72.72 |
| 7.2% | $33.58 | $36.73 | $40.55 | $45.28 | $51.28 |
| 8.2% | $27.54 | $29.71 | $32.26 | $35.30 | $38.98 |
| 9.2% | $23.09 | $24.66 | $26.46 | $28.55 | $31.01 |
| 10.2% | $19.67 | $20.85 | $22.18 | $23.69 | $25.43 |
