TGM's two-stage DCF values Ferroglobe PLC (GSM) between $7.95 and $13.40 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $9.86. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.1%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$4.38 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -15.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.1% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 10.1% | $7.95 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 9.1% | $9.86 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 8.1% | $13.40 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $3.63 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$4.38
Market-Implied Growth
-15.2%/yr
vs +0.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$7.95 – $13.40
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for GSM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $129.5M · 0.19B shares · net debt $112.7M
Estimated Fair Value
$9.86
+124.9% vs $4.38
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $4.38; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.1% | $12.14 | $13.15 | $14.39 | $15.93 | $17.90 |
| 8.1% | $10.20 | $10.90 | $11.72 | $12.70 | $13.90 |
| 9.1% | $8.78 | $9.28 | $9.86 | $10.53 | $11.33 |
| 10.1% | $7.68 | $8.06 | $8.49 | $8.98 | $9.53 |
| 11.1% | $6.82 | $7.11 | $7.44 | $7.80 | $8.21 |
