TGM's two-stage DCF values Goosehead Insurance, Inc (GSHD) between $19.19 and $34.23 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $26.20. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.8%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$44.59 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +29.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.8% required return — about in line with its track record.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 11.8% | $19.19 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 10.8% | $26.20 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 9.8% | $34.23 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $21.16 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$44.59
Market-Implied Growth
+29.8%/yr
vs +29.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$19.19 – $34.23
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for GSHD (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $54.6M · 0.04B shares · net debt $258.1M
Estimated Fair Value
$26.20
-41.3% vs $44.59
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $44.59; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.8% | $32.50 | $34.93 | $37.75 | $41.05 | $44.96 |
| 9.8% | $27.32 | $29.12 | $31.17 | $33.51 | $36.23 |
| 10.8% | $23.28 | $24.66 | $26.20 | $27.93 | $29.90 |
| 11.8% | $20.04 | $21.12 | $22.31 | $23.64 | $25.12 |
| 12.8% | $17.38 | $18.25 | $19.19 | $20.23 | $21.38 |
