TGM's two-stage DCF values Global-e Online Ltd. (GLBE) between $19.55 and $32.06 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $25.14. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.1%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$38.70 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +29.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.1% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 10.1% | $19.55 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 9.1% | $25.14 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 8.1% | $32.06 |
Current Price
$38.70
Market-Implied Growth
+29.8%/yr
vs +42.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$19.55 – $32.06
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for GLBE (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $136.8M · 0.17B shares · net cash $245.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$25.14
-35.0% vs $38.70
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $38.70; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.1% | $30.75 | $33.26 | $36.31 | $40.10 | $44.94 |
| 8.1% | $25.98 | $27.70 | $29.72 | $32.13 | $35.07 |
| 9.1% | $22.49 | $23.72 | $25.14 | $26.79 | $28.74 |
| 10.1% | $19.82 | $20.74 | $21.78 | $22.97 | $24.34 |
| 11.1% | $17.71 | $18.42 | $19.22 | $20.11 | $21.11 |
