TGM's two-stage DCF values General Mills, Inc. (GIS) between $39.91 and $92.90 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $57.84. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$36.03 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -5.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $39.91 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $57.84 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $92.90 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $76.64 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$36.03
Market-Implied Growth
-5.0%/yr
vs -7.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$39.91 – $92.90
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for GIS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.2B · 0.53B shares · net debt $13.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$57.84
+60.5% vs $36.03
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $36.03; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $82.00 | $95.12 | $113 | $137 | $174 |
| 6.5% | $60.65 | $68.54 | $78.38 | $91.02 | $108 |
| 7.5% | $46.42 | $51.62 | $57.84 | $65.44 | $74.93 |
| 8.5% | $36.26 | $39.91 | $44.15 | $49.16 | $55.16 |
| 9.5% | $28.64 | $31.32 | $34.37 | $37.88 | $41.98 |
