Why we don't show a single “fair value” for GIII
Even the conservative scenario ($82.66) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.5%/yr | 11.4% | $82.66 |
| Base case | 5.5%/yr | 10.4% | $102.56 |
| Optimistic | 8.5%/yr | 9.4% | $130.24 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $43.18 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$27.13
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$102.56
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for GIII (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $268.5M · 0.04B shares · net cash $394.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$102.56
+278.0% vs $27.13
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $27.13; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.4% | $120 | $127 | $135 | $144 | $156 |
| 9.4% | $106 | $111 | $116 | $123 | $131 |
| 10.4% | $94.46 | $98.27 | $103 | $107 | $113 |
| 11.4% | $85.63 | $88.59 | $91.89 | $95.56 | $99.70 |
| 12.4% | $78.42 | $80.78 | $83.38 | $86.24 | $89.42 |
