Why we don't show a single “fair value” for GFS
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($21.34) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$46.95 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +34.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 3.0%/yr | 12.5% | $13.87 |
| Base case | 6.0%/yr | 11.5% | $17.04 |
| Optimistic | 9.0%/yr | 10.5% | $21.34 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 11, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $13.83 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$46.95
Market-Implied Growth
+34.3%/yr
vs +6.0% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$17.04
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for GFS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $665.0M · 0.55B shares · net cash $658.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$17.04
-63.7% vs $46.95
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 6.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $46.95; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $19.65 | $20.60 | $21.69 | $22.94 | $24.40 |
| 10.5% | $17.54 | $18.26 | $19.07 | $19.99 | $21.04 |
| 11.5% | $15.85 | $16.42 | $17.04 | $17.74 | $18.53 |
| 12.5% | $14.48 | $14.93 | $15.42 | $15.97 | $16.57 |
| 13.5% | $13.33 | $13.70 | $14.09 | $14.53 | $15.01 |
