GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. (GFS) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for GFS
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($22.01) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$81.38 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +50.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 3.8%/yr | 12.5% | $14.28 |
| Base case | 6.8%/yr | 11.5% | $17.56 |
| Optimistic | 9.8%/yr | 10.5% | $22.01 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $14.08 | |
Current Price
$81.38
Market-Implied Growth
+50.6%/yr
vs +6.8% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$17.56
model output — not a price target
GFS DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for GFS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $665.0M · 0.55B shares · net cash $658.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$19.82
-75.6% vs $81.38
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 6.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $81.38; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $23.78 | $24.64 | $25.63 | $26.77 | $28.09 |
| 10.5% | $21.03 | $21.65 | $22.35 | $23.15 | $24.06 |
| 11.5% | $18.84 | $19.31 | $19.82 | $20.39 | $21.04 |
| 12.5% | $17.06 | $17.42 | $17.80 | $18.23 | $18.70 |
| 13.5% | $15.59 | $15.86 | $16.16 | $16.48 | $16.84 |
About GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.
GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. operates as a prominent global semiconductor foundry, specializing in the creation of integrated circuits. These vital components are instrumental in powering a wide array of ubiquitous electronic devices. The company's diverse portfolio includes the manufacturing of various semiconductor devices, such as microprocessors, mobile application processors, baseband and network processors, radio frequency modems, microcontrollers, power management units, and microelectromechanical systems. Additionally, it offers comprehensive wafer fabrication services and advanced technological solutions. Established in 2009, the firm maintains its headquarters in Malta, New York.
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Semiconductors
- CEO
- Timothy Graham Breen