Why we don't show a single “fair value” for GFS
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($21.99) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$49.02 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +35.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 3.8%/yr | 12.5% | $14.26 |
| Base case | 6.8%/yr | 11.5% | $17.55 |
| Optimistic | 9.8%/yr | 10.5% | $21.99 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 28, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $14.12 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$49.02
Market-Implied Growth
+35.6%/yr
vs +6.8% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$17.55
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for GFS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $665.0M · 0.55B shares · net cash $658.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$17.55
-64.2% vs $49.02
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 6.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $49.02; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $20.25 | $21.24 | $22.37 | $23.67 | $25.18 |
| 10.5% | $18.06 | $18.81 | $19.66 | $20.61 | $21.70 |
| 11.5% | $16.31 | $16.90 | $17.55 | $18.27 | $19.09 |
| 12.5% | $14.89 | $15.35 | $15.86 | $16.43 | $17.06 |
| 13.5% | $13.70 | $14.08 | $14.49 | $14.94 | $15.44 |
