TGM's two-stage DCF values Griffon Corporation (GFF) between $40.72 and $83.97 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $58.93. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.8%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$87.90 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +11.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.8% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 1.0%/yr | 11.8% | $40.72 |
| Base case | 4.0%/yr | 10.8% | $58.93 |
| Optimistic | 7.0%/yr | 9.8% | $83.97 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 30, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $40.89 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$87.90
Market-Implied Growth
+11.2%/yr
vs +4.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$40.72 – $83.97
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for GFF (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $306.2M · 0.05B shares · net debt $1.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$58.93
-33.0% vs $87.90
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 4.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $87.90; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.8% | $74.27 | $80.18 | $87.02 | $95.03 | $105 |
| 9.8% | $61.68 | $66.07 | $71.05 | $76.75 | $83.35 |
| 10.8% | $51.80 | $55.17 | $58.93 | $63.16 | $67.97 |
| 11.8% | $43.85 | $46.50 | $49.42 | $52.66 | $56.29 |
| 12.8% | $37.32 | $39.44 | $41.76 | $44.31 | $47.13 |
