TGM's two-stage DCF values Griffon Corporation (GFF) between $39.27 and $80.88 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $56.84. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$93.81 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +13.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 1.0%/yr | 12.0% | $39.27 |
| Base case | 4.0%/yr | 11.0% | $56.84 |
| Optimistic | 7.0%/yr | 10.0% | $80.88 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $33.40 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$93.81
Market-Implied Growth
+13.2%/yr
vs +4.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$39.27 – $80.88
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for GFF (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $306.2M · 0.05B shares · net debt $1.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$56.84
-39.4% vs $93.81
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 4.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $93.81; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.0% | $71.48 | $77.04 | $83.43 | $90.89 | $99.69 |
| 10.0% | $59.52 | $63.67 | $68.36 | $73.72 | $79.90 |
| 11.0% | $50.08 | $53.28 | $56.84 | $60.85 | $65.38 |
| 12.0% | $42.45 | $44.97 | $47.76 | $50.84 | $54.29 |
| 13.0% | $36.15 | $38.18 | $40.40 | $42.84 | $45.53 |
