Griffon Corporation (GFF) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Griffon Corporation (GFF) between $38.65 and $73.77 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $51.21. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$94.73 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +13.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.9% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 11.9% | $38.65 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 10.9% | $51.21 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 9.9% | $73.77 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $40.11 | |
Current Price
$94.73
Market-Implied Growth
+13.0%/yr
vs -0.5% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$38.65 – $73.77
model output — not a price target
GFF DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for GFF (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $306.2M · 0.05B shares · net debt $1.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$50.03
-47.2% vs $94.73
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $94.73; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.9% | $66.36 | $70.06 | $74.34 | $79.34 | $85.27 |
| 9.9% | $54.94 | $57.57 | $60.54 | $63.95 | $67.89 |
| 10.9% | $45.96 | $47.88 | $50.03 | $52.44 | $55.19 |
| 11.9% | $38.71 | $40.15 | $41.74 | $43.51 | $45.49 |
| 12.9% | $32.74 | $33.84 | $35.04 | $36.37 | $37.84 |
About Griffon Corporation
Griffon Corporation is a global enterprise that operates through its various subsidiaries, providing an extensive range of consumer, professional, and home & building products. Its market reach extends across the United States, Europe, Canada, Australia, and other international territories. The company's Consumer and Professional Products division develops and distributes a wide spectrum of items designed for both residential and commercial clients. This includes a comprehensive selection of landscaping equipment like long-handled tools, wheelbarrows, lawn carts, garden hoses, planters, and outdoor accessories, as well as various hand, striking, and snow tools. The segment also offers complete storage and organizational solutions, from wood and wire closet systems and general living storage to wire garage storage products. These are primarily supplied to major home improvement retailers, mass merchandisers, and directly to professional builders. Additionally, it offers cleaning products for diverse applications, including professional, domestic, and industrial uses. Concurrently, Griffon's Home & Building Products segment is dedicated to manufacturing and marketing garage doors for both residential and commercial properties, which are distributed to professional dealers and numerous home improvement retail chains. This segment also supplies rolling steel doors and grilles, catering to commercial, industrial, institutional, and retail applications. These products are sold under a wide array of established brand names, such as True Temper, AMES, ClosetMaid, Clopay, Ideal, Holmes, CornellCookson, Garant, Harper, UnionTools, Westmix, Cyclone, Southern Patio, Northcote Pottery, Nylex, Hills, Kelkay, Tuscan Path, La Hacienda, Kelso, Dynamic Design, Apta, Quatro Design, Razor-Back, Jackson, Darby, Trojan, Supercraft, NeverLeak, Maximum Load, SuperSlide, ShelfTrack, MasterSuite, Suite Symphony, ExpressShelf, Style+, and SpaceCreations. Established in 1959, the corporation was originally named Instrument Systems Corporation before officially rebranding as Griffon Corporation in June 1992. Its corporate headquarters are located in New York, New York.
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Conglomerates
- CEO
- Ronald J. Kramer