Why we don't show a single “fair value” for GEV
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($145.54) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 5.7%/yr | 9.9% | $96.68 |
| Base case | 8.7%/yr | 8.9% | $116.46 |
| Optimistic | 11.7%/yr | 7.9% | $145.54 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $331.04 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$951.86
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$116.46
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for GEV (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.1B · 0.27B shares · net cash $8.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$116.46
-87.8% vs $951.86
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 8.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $951.86; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.9% | $136 | $145 | $156 | $169 | $187 |
| 7.9% | $119 | $125 | $132 | $141 | $151 |
| 8.9% | $107 | $111 | $116 | $122 | $129 |
| 9.9% | $98.02 | $101 | $105 | $109 | $114 |
| 10.9% | $90.80 | $93.25 | $95.99 | $99.07 | $103 |
