Why we don't show a single “fair value” for GDHG
A trailing-FCF DCF can't fairly anchor Golden Heaven Group Holdings Ltd. right now — free cash flow has been negative in recent years. For a company in this position, trailing free cash flow understates what the business actually earns for owners, so any “fair value” built on it would be misleadingly low. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $81.57 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $95.28 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $122.10 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $174.59 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$1.16
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$95.28
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for GDHG (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $7.7M · 0.00B shares · net cash $79.4M
Estimated Fair Value
$95.28
+8113.3% vs $1.16
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $1.16; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $114 | $124 | $137 | $156 | $184 |
| 6.5% | $97.43 | $103 | $111 | $121 | $134 |
| 7.5% | $86.55 | $90.52 | $95.28 | $101 | $108 |
| 8.5% | $78.77 | $81.56 | $84.81 | $88.64 | $93.23 |
| 9.5% | $72.94 | $74.99 | $77.32 | $80.01 | $83.14 |
