TGM's two-stage DCF values GigaCloud Technology Inc. (GCT) between $70.25 and $102.85 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $85.64. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$55.63 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +4.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $70.25 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $85.64 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $102.85 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $52.87 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$55.63
Market-Implied Growth
+4.8%/yr
vs +32.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$70.25 – $102.85
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for GCT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $135.8M · 0.04B shares · net cash $379.8M
Estimated Fair Value
$85.64
+53.9% vs $55.63
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $55.63; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $98.98 | $104 | $109 | $116 | $123 |
| 10.5% | $88.16 | $91.87 | $96.03 | $101 | $106 |
| 11.5% | $79.55 | $82.44 | $85.64 | $89.21 | $93.23 |
| 12.5% | $72.54 | $74.84 | $77.36 | $80.14 | $83.23 |
| 13.5% | $66.73 | $68.59 | $70.62 | $72.83 | $75.26 |
