Why we don't show a single “fair value” for GAIA
A trailing-FCF DCF can't fairly anchor Gaia, Inc. right now — free cash flow has been negative in recent years; free cash flow is currently depressed by a heavy investment cycle while revenue keeps growing. For a company in this position, trailing free cash flow understates what the business actually earns for owners, so any “fair value” built on it would be misleadingly low. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.7%/yr | 9.9% | $0.38 |
| Base case | 5.7%/yr | 8.9% | $0.39 |
| Optimistic | 8.7%/yr | 7.9% | $0.42 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $2.65 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$1.40
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$0.39
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for GAIA (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $109500 · 0.03B shares · net cash $7.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$0.39
-71.8% vs $1.40
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $1.40; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.9% | $0.41 | $0.42 | $0.43 | $0.44 | $0.46 |
| 7.9% | $0.40 | $0.40 | $0.41 | $0.42 | $0.43 |
| 8.9% | $0.39 | $0.39 | $0.39 | $0.40 | $0.41 |
| 9.9% | $0.38 | $0.38 | $0.38 | $0.39 | $0.39 |
| 10.9% | $0.37 | $0.37 | $0.37 | $0.38 | $0.38 |
