A meaningful DCF fair value isn't available for Forward Air Corporation (FWRD) — its free-cash-flow and net-debt profile makes a standard discounted-cash-flow model unreliable (common for loss-makers and high-net-debt or recently-public companies), and no analyst DCF is published. Explore your own assumptions with the editable model below.
What would today's price require?
$15.22 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +22.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 8.4%/yr | 12.0% | N/A |
| Base case | 11.4%/yr | 11.0% | N/A |
| Optimistic | 14.4%/yr | 10.0% | $3.84 |
Current Price
$15.22
Market-Implied Growth
+22.7%/yr
vs +11.4% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
N/A
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for FWRD (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $83.0M · 0.03B shares · net debt $1.7B
Estimated Fair Value
N/A
These assumptions imply no positive equity value — try a higher growth or lower discount rate.
