TGM's two-stage DCF values Frontdoor, Inc. (FTDR) between $21.71 and $39.83 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $29.42. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$78.07 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +28.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 3.7%/yr | 12.5% | $21.71 |
| Base case | 6.7%/yr | 11.5% | $29.42 |
| Optimistic | 9.7%/yr | 10.5% | $39.83 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $44.81 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$78.07
Market-Implied Growth
+28.4%/yr
vs +6.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$21.71 – $39.83
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for FTDR (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $200.5M · 0.07B shares · net debt $628.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$29.42
-62.3% vs $78.07
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 6.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $78.07; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $35.75 | $38.07 | $40.72 | $43.77 | $47.32 |
| 10.5% | $30.62 | $32.38 | $34.36 | $36.59 | $39.15 |
| 11.5% | $26.52 | $27.89 | $29.42 | $31.12 | $33.02 |
| 12.5% | $23.17 | $24.27 | $25.47 | $26.80 | $28.27 |
| 13.5% | $20.39 | $21.28 | $22.25 | $23.30 | $24.46 |
