TGM's two-stage DCF values FirstService Corporation (FSV) between $50.09 and $110.43 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $74.31. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.6%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$129.49 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +23.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.6% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 9.4%/yr | 9.6% | $50.09 |
| Base case | 12.4%/yr | 8.6% | $74.31 |
| Optimistic | 15.4%/yr | 7.6% | $110.43 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $99.56 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$129.49
Market-Implied Growth
+23.6%/yr
vs +12.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$50.09 – $110.43
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for FSV (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $180.3M · 0.05B shares · net debt $1.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$74.31
-42.6% vs $129.49
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 12.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $129.49; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.6% | $99.07 | $111 | $125 | $144 | $168 |
| 7.6% | $77.78 | $85.52 | $94.77 | $106 | $120 |
| 8.6% | $62.53 | $67.97 | $74.31 | $81.76 | $90.67 |
| 9.6% | $51.08 | $55.08 | $59.65 | $64.90 | $71.00 |
| 10.6% | $42.17 | $45.22 | $48.64 | $52.50 | $56.90 |
