TGM's two-stage DCF values L.B. Foster Company (FSTR) between $17.04 and $29.30 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $21.44. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.8%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$36.91 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +14.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.8% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 10.8% | $17.04 |
| Base case | 2.1%/yr | 9.8% | $21.44 |
| Optimistic | 5.1%/yr | 8.8% | $29.30 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $53.95 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$36.91
Market-Implied Growth
+14.0%/yr
vs +2.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$17.04 – $29.30
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for FSTR (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $19.0M · 0.01B shares · net debt $38.4M
Estimated Fair Value
$21.44
-41.9% vs $36.91
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $36.91; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.8% | $26.38 | $28.44 | $30.90 | $33.86 | $37.50 |
| 8.8% | $22.25 | $23.72 | $25.42 | $27.41 | $29.78 |
| 9.8% | $19.11 | $20.20 | $21.44 | $22.86 | $24.51 |
| 10.8% | $16.65 | $17.49 | $18.43 | $19.48 | $20.68 |
| 11.8% | $14.67 | $15.33 | $16.06 | $16.86 | $17.77 |
