TGM's two-stage DCF values FRP Holdings, Inc. (FRPH) between $27.67 and $58.42 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $39.50. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$20.24 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -2.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 7.5%/yr | 8.5% | $27.67 |
| Base case | 10.5%/yr | 7.5% | $39.50 |
| Optimistic | 13.5%/yr | 6.5% | $58.42 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $25.16 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$20.24
Market-Implied Growth
-2.9%/yr
vs +10.5% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$27.67 – $58.42
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for FRPH (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $29.3M · 0.02B shares · net debt $87.2M
Estimated Fair Value
$39.50
+95.2% vs $20.24
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 10.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $20.24; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $52.96 | $60.26 | $69.98 | $83.59 | $104 |
| 6.5% | $41.08 | $45.45 | $50.92 | $57.95 | $67.31 |
| 7.5% | $33.17 | $36.05 | $39.50 | $43.72 | $48.98 |
| 8.5% | $27.53 | $29.55 | $31.90 | $34.68 | $38.00 |
| 9.5% | $23.32 | $24.80 | $26.48 | $28.43 | $30.69 |
