TGM's two-stage DCF values Shift4 Payments, Inc. (FOUR) between $15.09 and $46.19 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $29.61. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$36.17 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +20.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.9% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 11.9% | $15.09 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 10.9% | $29.61 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 9.9% | $46.19 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 4, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $282.66 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$36.17
Market-Implied Growth
+20.4%/yr
vs +36.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$15.09 – $46.19
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for FOUR (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $280.6M · 0.09B shares · net debt $3.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$29.61
-18.1% vs $36.17
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $36.17; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.9% | $42.59 | $47.57 | $53.31 | $60.02 | $67.97 |
| 9.9% | $31.95 | $35.65 | $39.84 | $44.63 | $50.16 |
| 10.9% | $23.61 | $26.45 | $29.61 | $33.17 | $37.21 |
| 11.9% | $16.91 | $19.14 | $21.60 | $24.33 | $27.38 |
| 12.9% | $11.41 | $13.20 | $15.15 | $17.30 | $19.67 |
