Why we don't show a single “fair value” for FORM
A trailing-FCF DCF can't fairly anchor FormFactor, Inc. right now — free cash flow is currently depressed by a heavy investment cycle while revenue keeps growing. For a company in this position, trailing free cash flow understates what the business actually earns for owners, so any “fair value” built on it would be misleadingly low. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.8%/yr | 11.3% | $6.37 |
| Base case | 3.8%/yr | 10.3% | $7.86 |
| Optimistic | 6.8%/yr | 9.3% | $9.94 |
Current Price
$111.87
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$7.86
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for FORM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $39.1M · 0.08B shares · net cash $71.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$7.86
-93.0% vs $111.87
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 3.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $111.87; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.3% | $9.16 | $9.68 | $10.28 | $11.01 | $11.88 |
| 9.3% | $8.09 | $8.46 | $8.90 | $9.40 | $9.98 |
| 10.3% | $7.26 | $7.54 | $7.86 | $8.23 | $8.65 |
| 11.3% | $6.60 | $6.82 | $7.07 | $7.34 | $7.65 |
| 12.3% | $6.06 | $6.24 | $6.43 | $6.65 | $6.89 |
