Why we don't show a single “fair value” for FN
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($165.31) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$476.04 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +54.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.1% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 11.1% | $105.43 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 10.1% | $132.93 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 9.1% | $165.31 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $174.05 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$476.04
Market-Implied Growth
+54.7%/yr
vs +29.1% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$132.93
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for FN (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $178.8M · 0.04B shares · net cash $301.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$132.93
-72.1% vs $476.04
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $476.04; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.1% | $159 | $169 | $182 | $196 | $214 |
| 9.1% | $137 | $145 | $154 | $164 | $176 |
| 10.1% | $121 | $127 | $133 | $140 | $149 |
| 11.1% | $108 | $112 | $117 | $123 | $129 |
| 12.1% | $97.55 | $101 | $105 | $109 | $114 |
