TGM's two-stage DCF values Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO) between $10.30 and $27.36 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $16.72. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$5.57 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -10.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $10.30 |
| Base case | 3.2%/yr | 7.5% | $16.72 |
| Optimistic | 6.2%/yr | 6.5% | $27.36 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 2, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $23.74 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$5.57
Market-Implied Growth
-10.2%/yr
vs +3.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$10.30 – $27.36
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for FLO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $250.4M · 0.21B shares · net debt $1.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$16.72
+200.2% vs $5.57
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 3.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $5.57; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $24.09 | $28.09 | $33.42 | $40.88 | $52.06 |
| 6.5% | $17.58 | $19.98 | $22.98 | $26.84 | $31.97 |
| 7.5% | $13.24 | $14.82 | $16.72 | $19.04 | $21.93 |
| 8.5% | $10.14 | $11.25 | $12.55 | $14.07 | $15.90 |
| 9.5% | $7.82 | $8.64 | $9.57 | $10.64 | $11.88 |
