TGM's two-stage DCF values National Beverage Corp. (FIZZ) between $29.19 and $48.65 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $35.86. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$30.02 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -2.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.9% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.9% | $29.19 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.9% | $35.86 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.9% | $48.65 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $36.54 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$30.02
Market-Implied Growth
-2.6%/yr
vs +2.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$29.19 – $48.65
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for FIZZ (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $161.9M · 0.09B shares · net cash $349.5M
Estimated Fair Value
$35.86
+19.5% vs $30.02
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $30.02; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.9% | $44.51 | $48.96 | $54.70 | $62.43 | $73.36 |
| 6.9% | $36.94 | $39.73 | $43.14 | $47.42 | $52.96 |
| 7.9% | $31.74 | $33.63 | $35.86 | $38.54 | $41.83 |
| 8.9% | $27.94 | $29.29 | $30.85 | $32.67 | $34.82 |
| 9.9% | $25.05 | $26.06 | $27.20 | $28.50 | $30.00 |
