TGM's two-stage DCF values F5, Inc. (FFIV) between $194.59 and $323.07 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $247.13. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.3%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$411.71 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +21.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.3% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 5.0%/yr | 10.3% | $194.59 |
| Base case | 8.0%/yr | 9.3% | $247.13 |
| Optimistic | 11.0%/yr | 8.3% | $323.07 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 11, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $376.39 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$411.71
Market-Implied Growth
+21.7%/yr
vs +10.5% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$194.59 – $323.07
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for FFIV (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $680.6M · 0.06B shares · net cash $1.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$247.13
-40.0% vs $411.71
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 8.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $411.71; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.3% | $297 | $319 | $345 | $378 | $419 |
| 8.3% | $255 | $270 | $288 | $309 | $334 |
| 9.3% | $223 | $234 | $247 | $262 | $279 |
| 10.3% | $199 | $208 | $217 | $228 | $240 |
| 11.3% | $180 | $187 | $194 | $202 | $211 |
