Why we don't show a single “fair value” for FERG
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($116.09) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$233.26 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +23.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.7% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 10.7% | $61.47 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 9.7% | $80.80 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 8.7% | $116.09 |
Current Price
$233.26
Market-Implied Growth
+23.7%/yr
vs -15.0% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$80.80
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for FERG (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.6B · 0.19B shares · net debt $6.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$80.80
-65.4% vs $233.26
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $233.26; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.7% | $103 | $112 | $124 | $137 | $154 |
| 8.7% | $84.38 | $91.03 | $98.75 | $108 | $119 |
| 9.7% | $70.29 | $75.21 | $80.80 | $87.22 | $94.67 |
| 10.7% | $59.26 | $63.02 | $67.24 | $71.99 | $77.39 |
| 11.7% | $50.40 | $53.35 | $56.62 | $60.25 | $64.32 |
