TGM's two-stage DCF values FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. (FDXF) between $85.51 and $179.34 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $117.26. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$112.89 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +1.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $85.51 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $117.26 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $179.34 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 2, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $96.12 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$112.89
Market-Implied Growth
+1.3%/yr
Model Scenario Range
$85.51 – $179.34
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for FDXF (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.1B · 0.15B shares · net debt $4.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$117.26
+3.9% vs $112.89
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $112.89; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $160 | $183 | $214 | $258 | $322 |
| 6.5% | $122 | $136 | $154 | $176 | $206 |
| 7.5% | $97.04 | $106 | $117 | $131 | $148 |
| 8.5% | $79.04 | $85.49 | $93.01 | $102 | $113 |
| 9.5% | $65.54 | $70.28 | $75.68 | $81.91 | $89.16 |
