TGM's two-stage DCF values FedEx Corporation (FDX) between $79.23 and $157.82 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $111.12. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.8%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$295.94 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +22.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.8% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 11.8% | $79.23 |
| Base case | 3.1%/yr | 10.8% | $111.12 |
| Optimistic | 6.1%/yr | 9.8% | $157.82 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $303.82 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$295.94
Market-Implied Growth
+22.6%/yr
vs +3.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$79.23 – $157.82
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for FDX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $3.1B · 0.24B shares · net debt $12.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$111.12
-62.5% vs $295.94
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 3.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $295.94; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.8% | $140 | $151 | $163 | $178 | $196 |
| 9.8% | $116 | $124 | $134 | $144 | $156 |
| 10.8% | $97.90 | $104 | $111 | $119 | $128 |
| 11.8% | $83.14 | $88.04 | $93.46 | $99.49 | $106 |
| 12.8% | $70.99 | $74.93 | $79.24 | $83.98 | $89.22 |
