FedEx Corporation (FDX) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values FedEx Corporation (FDX) between $111.38 and $189.14 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $140.99. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$317.24 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +21.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 11.5% | $111.38 |
| Base case | 2.5%/yr | 10.5% | $140.99 |
| Optimistic | 5.5%/yr | 9.5% | $189.14 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $163.83 | |
Current Price
$317.24
Market-Implied Growth
+21.1%/yr
vs +2.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$111.38 – $189.14
model output — not a price target
FDX DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for FDX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $3.1B · 0.24B shares · net debt $5.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$140.79
-55.6% vs $317.24
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $317.24; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $177 | $185 | $196 | $207 | $222 |
| 9.5% | $151 | $157 | $164 | $172 | $182 |
| 10.5% | $132 | $136 | $141 | $146 | $153 |
| 11.5% | $116 | $119 | $123 | $127 | $131 |
| 12.5% | $103 | $105 | $108 | $111 | $114 |
About FedEx Corporation
FedEx Corporation is a prominent global entity that delivers an extensive array of services encompassing transportation, e-commerce solutions, and diverse business support, catering to clients both within the United States and across international borders. Its operational structure is divided into several key segments: The FedEx Express division specializes in expedited shipping, offering rapid package and freight delivery, crucial time-sensitive logistics, and comprehensive cross-border, technological, and e-commerce transportation services. FedEx Ground focuses on reliable, scheduled delivery services for both commercial clients and individual households. The FedEx Freight unit manages less-than-truckload (LTL) cargo shipments, supported by a significant infrastructure that, as of May 31, 2022, included approximately 30,000 vehicles and 400 service centers. FedEx Services provides essential internal support functions across the company, such as sales, marketing, information technology, communications, customer and technical assistance, billing, collections, and other vital administrative operations. Finally, the Corporate, Other, and Eliminations segment broadens FedEx's offerings to include integrated supply chain management, specialized transportation, customs brokerage, global ocean and air freight forwarding, document and business services, and convenient retail access points for its package delivery operations. Established in 1971, FedEx Corporation maintains its headquarters in Memphis, Tennessee.
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Integrated Freight & Logistics
- CEO
- Rajesh Subramaniam