Why we don't show a single “fair value” for FDX
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($149.47) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$318.57 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +24.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.7% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 11.7% | $69.32 |
| Base case | 3.1%/yr | 10.7% | $101.79 |
| Optimistic | 6.1%/yr | 9.7% | $149.47 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $320.50 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$318.57
Market-Implied Growth
+24.7%/yr
vs +3.8% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$101.79
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for FDX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $3.1B · 0.24B shares · net debt $15.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$101.79
-68.0% vs $318.57
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 3.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $318.57; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.7% | $131 | $142 | $155 | $171 | $189 |
| 9.7% | $107 | $115 | $125 | $136 | $148 |
| 10.7% | $88.23 | $94.63 | $102 | $110 | $119 |
| 11.7% | $73.15 | $78.17 | $83.73 | $89.91 | $96.83 |
| 12.7% | $60.78 | $64.80 | $69.21 | $74.06 | $79.42 |
