TGM's two-stage DCF values FirstCash Holdings, Inc (FCFS) between $242.07 and $505.51 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $352.44. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$211.00 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +7.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.5% | $242.07 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.5% | $352.44 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.5% | $505.51 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $474.70 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$211.00
Market-Implied Growth
+7.7%/yr
vs +31.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$242.07 – $505.51
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for FCFS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $452.7M · 0.04B shares · net debt $2.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$352.44
+67.0% vs $211.00
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $211.00; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $481 | $551 | $644 | $773 | $968 |
| 6.5% | $368 | $409 | $461 | $528 | $618 |
| 7.5% | $292 | $320 | $352 | $393 | $443 |
| 8.5% | $238 | $258 | $280 | $306 | $338 |
| 9.5% | $198 | $212 | $228 | $247 | $268 |