TGM's two-stage DCF values Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG) between $146.57 and $322.33 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $220.20. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$201.09 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +16.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.5% | $146.57 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.5% | $220.20 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.5% | $322.33 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 12, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $77.84 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$201.09
Market-Implied Growth
+16.2%/yr
vs +31.5% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$146.57 – $322.33
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for FANG (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.0B · 0.28B shares · net debt $14.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$220.20
+9.5% vs $201.09
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $201.09; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $306 | $352 | $414 | $501 | $631 |
| 6.5% | $230 | $258 | $293 | $338 | $397 |
| 7.5% | $180 | $198 | $220 | $247 | $280 |
| 8.5% | $144 | $157 | $172 | $189 | $211 |
| 9.5% | $117 | $127 | $138 | $150 | $164 |
