Why we don't show a single “fair value” for FAMI
A trailing-FCF DCF can't fairly anchor Farmmi, Inc. right now — free cash flow has been negative in recent years. For a company in this position, trailing free cash flow understates what the business actually earns for owners, so any “fair value” built on it would be misleadingly low. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 12.5% | $0.39 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 11.5% | $0.48 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 10.5% | $0.63 |
Current Price
$0.12
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$0.48
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for FAMI (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.9M · 0.04B shares · net debt $3.5M
Estimated Fair Value
$0.48
+284.4% vs $0.12
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $0.12; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $0.57 | $0.60 | $0.64 | $0.68 | $0.73 |
| 10.5% | $0.49 | $0.52 | $0.55 | $0.58 | $0.62 |
| 11.5% | $0.43 | $0.45 | $0.48 | $0.50 | $0.53 |
| 12.5% | $0.39 | $0.40 | $0.42 | $0.44 | $0.46 |
| 13.5% | $0.35 | $0.36 | $0.37 | $0.39 | $0.41 |
