TGM's two-stage DCF values First Advantage Corporation (FA) between $5.32 and $15.43 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $9.94. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$18.58 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +27.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.9% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 10.9% | $5.32 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 9.9% | $9.94 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 8.9% | $15.43 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $66.12 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$18.58
Market-Implied Growth
+27.2%/yr
vs +21.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$5.32 – $15.43
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for FA (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $138.0M · 0.17B shares · net debt $1.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$9.94
-46.5% vs $18.58
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $18.58; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.9% | $14.32 | $16.14 | $18.30 | $20.89 | $24.07 |
| 8.9% | $10.66 | $11.96 | $13.46 | $15.21 | $17.28 |
| 9.9% | $7.88 | $8.85 | $9.94 | $11.19 | $12.63 |
| 10.9% | $5.70 | $6.44 | $7.27 | $8.20 | $9.25 |
| 11.9% | $3.96 | $4.54 | $5.18 | $5.89 | $6.69 |