TGM's two-stage DCF values National Vision Holdings, Inc. (EYE) between $5.11 and $10.00 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $6.82. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$16.84 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +20.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 10.0% | $5.11 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 9.0% | $6.82 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 8.0% | $10.00 |
Current Price
$16.84
Market-Implied Growth
+20.1%/yr
vs -0.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$5.11 – $10.00
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for EYE (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $48.2M · 0.08B shares · net debt $197.8M
Estimated Fair Value
$6.82
-59.5% vs $16.84
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $16.84; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $8.88 | $9.80 | $10.94 | $12.36 | $14.17 |
| 8.0% | $7.13 | $7.76 | $8.51 | $9.40 | $10.50 |
| 9.0% | $5.84 | $6.30 | $6.82 | $7.43 | $8.15 |
| 10.0% | $4.86 | $5.20 | $5.59 | $6.03 | $6.53 |
| 11.0% | $4.09 | $4.35 | $4.64 | $4.97 | $5.34 |
