Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) between $427.90 and $683.72 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $545.90. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.3%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$240.90 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -2.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.3% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 11.3% | $427.90 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 10.3% | $545.90 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 9.3% | $683.72 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $230.34 | |
Current Price
$240.90
Market-Implied Growth
-2.8%/yr
vs +18.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$427.90 – $683.72
model output — not a price target
EXPE DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for EXPE (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.6B · 0.11B shares · net cash $561.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$909.72
+277.6% vs $240.90
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $240.90; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.3% | $1158 | $1225 | $1303 | $1395 | $1507 |
| 9.3% | $977 | $1023 | $1076 | $1137 | $1209 |
| 10.3% | $839 | $872 | $910 | $952 | $1001 |
| 11.3% | $731 | $756 | $783 | $813 | $848 |
| 12.3% | $645 | $663 | $683 | $706 | $731 |
About Expedia Group, Inc.
Expedia Group, Inc. operates as a leading online travel company, serving customers both within the United States and across international markets. The enterprise structures its extensive operations into three primary divisions: Retail, Business-to-Business (B2B), and Trivago. Its comprehensive brand portfolio caters to diverse travel needs. Key retail brands include Brand Expedia, a full-service online travel platform offering localized websites; Hotels.com, specializing in the marketing and distribution of lodging accommodations; and Vrbo, an online marketplace dedicated to alternative accommodation options. Other prominent travel booking websites under its umbrella are Orbitz, Travelocity, and CheapTickets. For the EMEA region, ebookers functions as an online travel agent, presenting travelers with a broad spectrum of choices, while Hotwire provides various travel booking services. Complementing these are CarRentals.com, an online car rental booking service; Classic Vacations, a specialist in luxury travel experiences; and Expedia Cruise, which guides travelers in booking cruises. In the B2B sphere, Expedia Partner Solutions offers travel and non-travel vertical services to a wide array of clients, including corporate travel management firms, airlines, travel agents, online retailers, and financial institutions. Egencia, another key brand, focuses specifically on delivering corporate travel management services. Further extending its reach, the portfolio also features Trivago, a hotel metasearch website that refers users to online travel companies and service providers, alongside Expedia Group Media Solutions. The company also provides online travel services through several regional brands like Wotif.com, lastminute.com.au, travel.com.au, Wotif.co.nz, and lastminute.co.nz. Beyond brand-specific offerings, Expedia Group, Inc. delivers loyalty programs, a wide array of hotel and alternative accommodation choices, and advertising and media services. Serving both individual leisure travelers and corporate clients, the company was initially founded as Expedia, Inc. in 1996. It subsequently rebranded to Expedia Group, Inc. in March 2018, and its headquarters are located in Seattle, Washington.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Travel Services
- CEO
- Ariane Gorin