TGM's two-stage DCF values Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) between $427.90 and $683.72 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $545.90. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.3%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$315.82 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +4.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.3% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 11.3% | $427.90 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 10.3% | $545.90 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 9.3% | $683.72 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 5, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $219.34 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$315.82
Market-Implied Growth
+4.0%/yr
vs +18.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$427.90 – $683.72
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for EXPE (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.6B · 0.11B shares · net cash $561.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$545.90
+72.9% vs $315.82
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $315.82; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.3% | $655 | $699 | $750 | $811 | $885 |
| 9.3% | $565 | $596 | $633 | $675 | $724 |
| 10.3% | $495 | $519 | $546 | $577 | $612 |
| 11.3% | $440 | $458 | $479 | $502 | $528 |
| 12.3% | $395 | $410 | $426 | $444 | $464 |
