TGM's two-stage DCF values ExlService Holdings, Inc. (EXLS) between $26.52 and $50.03 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $35.83. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.2%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$35.90 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +14.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.2% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 11.3%/yr | 9.2% | $26.52 |
| Base case | 14.3%/yr | 8.2% | $35.83 |
| Optimistic | 17.3%/yr | 7.2% | $50.03 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $50.05 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$35.90
Market-Implied Growth
+14.3%/yr
vs +11.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$26.52 – $50.03
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for EXLS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $190.3M · 0.15B shares · net debt $152.3M
Estimated Fair Value
$35.83
-0.2% vs $35.90
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 14.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $35.90; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.2% | $45.78 | $50.70 | $56.93 | $65.11 | $76.32 |
| 7.2% | $37.15 | $40.30 | $44.13 | $48.86 | $54.86 |
| 8.2% | $31.11 | $33.28 | $35.83 | $38.87 | $42.55 |
| 9.2% | $26.66 | $28.23 | $30.03 | $32.12 | $34.58 |
| 10.2% | $23.24 | $24.42 | $25.75 | $27.27 | $29.00 |
