TGM's two-stage DCF values Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) between $128.72 and $259.00 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $183.30. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$92.84 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +3.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.5% | $128.72 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.5% | $183.30 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.5% | $259.00 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $847.72 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$92.84
Market-Implied Growth
+3.8%/yr
vs +33.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$128.72 – $259.00
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for EXE (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.2B · 0.23B shares · net debt $4.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$183.30
+97.4% vs $92.84
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $92.84; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $247 | $281 | $327 | $391 | $488 |
| 6.5% | $191 | $211 | $237 | $270 | $314 |
| 7.5% | $153 | $167 | $183 | $203 | $228 |
| 8.5% | $127 | $136 | $147 | $161 | $176 |
| 9.5% | $107 | $114 | $122 | $131 | $142 |
