Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) between $124.57 and $250.64 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $177.38. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$88.73 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +3.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.5% | $124.57 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.5% | $177.38 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.5% | $250.64 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $867.23 | |
Current Price
$88.73
Market-Implied Growth
+3.5%/yr
vs +27.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$124.57 – $250.64
model output — not a price target
EXE DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for EXE (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.2B · 0.24B shares · net debt $4.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$328.22
+269.9% vs $88.73
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $88.73; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $467 | $525 | $602 | $710 | $871 |
| 6.5% | $356 | $389 | $430 | $483 | $554 |
| 7.5% | $283 | $303 | $328 | $359 | $396 |
| 8.5% | $231 | $245 | $261 | $280 | $303 |
| 9.5% | $193 | $202 | $213 | $226 | $241 |
About Expand Energy Corporation
Expand Energy Corporation functions as an independent entity primarily focused on the discovery and extraction of energy resources throughout the United States. Its core operations involve the acquisition, exploration, and subsequent development of properties to produce crude oil, natural gas, and associated liquid hydrocarbons from subterranean geological formations. The company maintains significant interests in key natural gas production areas, specifically within Pennsylvania's northern Appalachian Basin (Marcellus Shale) and northwestern Louisiana (Haynesville/Bossier Shales). As of December 31, 2023, its asset base featured a diverse collection of onshore U.S. unconventional natural gas properties, including ownership stakes in approximately 5,000 natural gas wells. Established in 1989 and based in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, the corporation was formerly known as Chesapeake Energy Corporation before officially adopting the Expand Energy Corporation name in October 2024.
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
- CEO
- Michael A. Wichterich