Why we don't show a single “fair value” for ETON
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($5.95) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 9.6% | $3.35 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 8.6% | $4.50 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 7.6% | $5.95 |
Current Price
$55.62
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$4.50
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ETON (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $4.0M · 0.03B shares · net debt $4.6M
Estimated Fair Value
$4.50
-91.9% vs $55.62
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $55.62; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.6% | $5.69 | $6.25 | $6.95 | $7.85 | $9.03 |
| 7.6% | $4.66 | $5.04 | $5.48 | $6.02 | $6.70 |
| 8.6% | $3.93 | $4.19 | $4.50 | $4.86 | $5.28 |
| 9.6% | $3.38 | $3.57 | $3.79 | $4.04 | $4.34 |
| 10.6% | $2.95 | $3.10 | $3.26 | $3.45 | $3.66 |
