TGM's two-stage DCF values EnerSys (ENS) between $68.07 and $126.20 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $92.25. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.1%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$178.82 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +18.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.1% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 1.2%/yr | 11.1% | $68.07 |
| Base case | 4.2%/yr | 10.1% | $92.25 |
| Optimistic | 7.2%/yr | 9.1% | $126.20 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $200.01 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$178.82
Market-Implied Growth
+18.8%/yr
vs +4.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$68.07 – $126.20
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ENS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $280.9M · 0.04B shares · net debt $696.3M
Estimated Fair Value
$92.25
-48.4% vs $178.82
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 4.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $178.82; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.1% | $114 | $122 | $132 | $145 | $160 |
| 9.1% | $95.83 | $102 | $109 | $118 | $128 |
| 10.1% | $82.23 | $86.94 | $92.25 | $98.31 | $105 |
| 11.1% | $71.48 | $75.12 | $79.16 | $83.71 | $88.84 |
| 12.1% | $62.77 | $65.64 | $68.81 | $72.32 | $76.23 |
