TGM's two-stage DCF values Embecta Corp. (EMBC) between $5.99 and $24.13 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $12.29. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.4%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$5.97 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -3.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.4% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 9.4% | $5.99 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 8.4% | $12.29 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 7.4% | $24.13 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $37.80 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$5.97
Market-Implied Growth
-3.1%/yr
vs -0.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$5.99 – $24.13
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for EMBC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $111.8M · 0.06B shares · net debt $1.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$12.29
+105.6% vs $5.97
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $5.97; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.4% | $20.13 | $23.92 | $28.67 | $34.82 | $43.09 |
| 7.4% | $13.35 | $15.83 | $18.81 | $22.46 | $27.04 |
| 8.4% | $8.54 | $10.27 | $12.29 | $14.67 | $17.55 |
| 9.4% | $4.94 | $6.21 | $7.65 | $9.32 | $11.27 |
| 10.4% | $2.16 | $3.12 | $4.19 | $5.41 | $6.81 |
