TGM's two-stage DCF values Elevance Health Inc. (ELV) between $406.92 and $888.03 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $592.93. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.6%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$377.68 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +0.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.6% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 6.3%/yr | 8.6% | $406.92 |
| Base case | 9.3%/yr | 7.6% | $592.93 |
| Optimistic | 12.3%/yr | 6.6% | $888.03 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $1,090.64 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$377.68
Market-Implied Growth
+0.7%/yr
vs +9.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$406.92 – $888.03
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ELV (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $5.7B · 0.22B shares · net debt $23.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$592.93
+57.0% vs $377.68
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 9.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $377.68; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.6% | $801 | $912 | $1059 | $1263 | $1563 |
| 6.6% | $618 | $685 | $769 | $876 | $1018 |
| 7.6% | $495 | $539 | $593 | $658 | $739 |
| 8.6% | $407 | $438 | $475 | $518 | $569 |
| 9.6% | $340 | $363 | $390 | $420 | $456 |
