Why we don't show a single “fair value” for EDUC
Even the conservative scenario ($3.13) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 10.4% | $3.13 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 9.4% | $3.77 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 8.4% | $4.95 |
Current Price
$1.28
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$3.77
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for EDUC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.1M · 0.01B shares · net cash $1.3M
Estimated Fair Value
$3.77
+194.6% vs $1.28
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $1.28; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.4% | $4.52 | $4.85 | $5.24 | $5.72 | $6.33 |
| 8.4% | $3.89 | $4.12 | $4.38 | $4.70 | $5.08 |
| 9.4% | $3.41 | $3.58 | $3.77 | $3.99 | $4.25 |
| 10.4% | $3.05 | $3.17 | $3.32 | $3.48 | $3.66 |
| 11.4% | $2.75 | $2.85 | $2.96 | $3.08 | $3.22 |
