TGM's two-stage DCF values Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL) between $132.57 and $215.26 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $168.80. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$122.24 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +8.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 9.5% | $132.57 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 8.5% | $168.80 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 7.5% | $215.26 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 25, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $503.22 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$122.24
Market-Implied Growth
+8.5%/yr
vs +42.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$132.57 – $215.26
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for DUOL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $211.9M · 0.05B shares · net cash $1.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$168.80
+38.1% vs $122.24
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $122.24; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5% | $207 | $225 | $248 | $277 | $316 |
| 7.5% | $174 | $186 | $200 | $218 | $240 |
| 8.5% | $151 | $159 | $169 | $180 | $194 |
| 9.5% | $133 | $139 | $146 | $154 | $164 |
| 10.5% | $120 | $124 | $130 | $135 | $142 |
