TGM's two-stage DCF values Dynatrace, Inc. (DT) between $40.31 and $70.89 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $53.32. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.8%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$41.62 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +11.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.8% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.8% | $40.31 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.8% | $53.32 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.8% | $70.89 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 25, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $51.64 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$41.62
Market-Implied Growth
+11.4%/yr
vs +20.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$40.31 – $70.89
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for DT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $392.5M · 0.29B shares · net cash $1.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$53.32
+28.1% vs $41.62
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $41.62; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.8% | $67.98 | $75.59 | $85.50 | $98.94 | $118 |
| 6.8% | $55.14 | $59.85 | $65.65 | $72.97 | $82.50 |
| 7.8% | $46.41 | $49.57 | $53.32 | $57.85 | $63.43 |
| 8.8% | $40.10 | $42.34 | $44.94 | $47.98 | $51.59 |
| 9.8% | $35.32 | $36.98 | $38.87 | $41.03 | $43.53 |
