TGM's two-stage DCF values Dynatrace, Inc. (DT) between $40.94 and $72.59 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $54.34. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.7%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$51.12 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +16.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.7% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.7% | $40.94 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.7% | $54.34 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.7% | $72.59 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 10, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $49.21 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$51.12
Market-Implied Growth
+16.4%/yr
vs +17.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$40.94 – $72.59
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for DT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $392.5M · 0.29B shares · net cash $1.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$54.34
+6.3% vs $51.12
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $51.12; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.7% | $69.60 | $77.63 | $88.17 | $103 | $124 |
| 6.7% | $56.20 | $61.12 | $67.20 | $74.93 | $85.06 |
| 7.7% | $47.15 | $50.43 | $54.34 | $59.07 | $64.93 |
| 8.7% | $40.65 | $42.96 | $45.65 | $48.81 | $52.57 |
| 9.7% | $35.75 | $37.46 | $39.40 | $41.63 | $44.22 |
