TGM's two-stage DCF values Viant Technology Inc. (DSP) between $16.30 and $24.92 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $20.22. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.7%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$12.05 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +2.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.7% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 10.7% | $16.30 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 9.7% | $20.22 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 8.7% | $24.92 |
Current Price
$12.05
Market-Implied Growth
+2.1%/yr
vs +22.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$16.30 – $24.92
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for DSP (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $42.9M · 0.07B shares · net cash $191.2M
Estimated Fair Value
$20.22
+67.7% vs $12.05
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $12.05; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.7% | $23.99 | $25.58 | $27.48 | $29.77 | $32.62 |
| 8.7% | $20.83 | $21.95 | $23.26 | $24.79 | $26.62 |
| 9.7% | $18.45 | $19.28 | $20.22 | $21.30 | $22.56 |
| 10.7% | $16.59 | $17.23 | $17.93 | $18.73 | $19.64 |
| 11.7% | $15.11 | $15.60 | $16.15 | $16.76 | $17.45 |
