TGM's two-stage DCF values Distribution Solutions Group, Inc. (DSGR) between $9.89 and $30.79 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $18.64. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$35.02 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +28.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.5% | $9.89 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.5% | $18.64 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.5% | $30.79 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $67.17 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$35.02
Market-Implied Growth
+28.4%/yr
vs +38.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$9.89 – $30.79
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for DSGR (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $38.3M · 0.05B shares · net debt $637.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$18.64
-46.8% vs $35.02
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $35.02; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $28.85 | $34.37 | $41.74 | $52.04 | $67.49 |
| 6.5% | $19.84 | $23.15 | $27.29 | $32.60 | $39.68 |
| 7.5% | $13.86 | $16.03 | $18.64 | $21.83 | $25.81 |
| 8.5% | $9.60 | $11.12 | $12.90 | $14.99 | $17.50 |
| 9.5% | $6.42 | $7.53 | $8.81 | $10.27 | $11.98 |
