Why we don't show a single “fair value” for DRS
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($22.21) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$44.80 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +32.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.6%/yr | 8.5% | $12.12 |
| Base case | 5.6%/yr | 7.5% | $16.00 |
| Optimistic | 8.6%/yr | 6.5% | $22.21 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $37.73 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$44.80
Market-Implied Growth
+32.8%/yr
vs +5.6% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$16.00
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for DRS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $165.5M · 0.27B shares · net cash $395.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$16.00
-64.3% vs $44.80
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $44.80; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $20.34 | $22.69 | $25.83 | $30.22 | $36.80 |
| 6.5% | $16.51 | $17.92 | $19.69 | $21.95 | $24.97 |
| 7.5% | $13.95 | $14.88 | $16.00 | $17.36 | $19.06 |
| 8.5% | $12.13 | $12.79 | $13.55 | $14.44 | $15.52 |
| 9.5% | $10.77 | $11.25 | $11.79 | $12.42 | $13.16 |
