TGM's two-stage DCF values DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. (DKS) between $92.90 and $160.80 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $121.08. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$135.09 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +15.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 9.5%/yr | 11.0% | $92.90 |
| Base case | 12.5%/yr | 10.0% | $121.08 |
| Optimistic | 15.5%/yr | 9.0% | $160.80 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 29, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $193.61 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$135.09
Market-Implied Growth
+15.2%/yr
vs +12.5% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$92.90 – $160.80
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for DKS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $533.5M · 0.09B shares · net debt $552.1M
Estimated Fair Value
$121.08
-10.4% vs $135.09
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 12.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $135.09; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $147 | $158 | $170 | $186 | $204 |
| 9.0% | $125 | $133 | $142 | $152 | $164 |
| 10.0% | $109 | $115 | $121 | $128 | $137 |
| 11.0% | $95.89 | $100 | $105 | $111 | $117 |
| 12.0% | $85.41 | $88.88 | $92.71 | $96.96 | $102 |
