Why we don't show a single “fair value” for DIOD
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($49.51) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$103.84 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +30.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 12.5% | $34.36 |
| Base case | 2.9%/yr | 11.5% | $40.43 |
| Optimistic | 5.9%/yr | 10.5% | $49.51 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 2, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $34.29 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$103.84
Market-Implied Growth
+30.9%/yr
vs +4.2% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$40.43
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for DIOD (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $133.6M · 0.05B shares · net cash $311.3M
Estimated Fair Value
$40.43
-61.1% vs $103.84
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $103.84; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $45.85 | $47.82 | $50.08 | $52.68 | $55.71 |
| 10.5% | $41.46 | $42.97 | $44.65 | $46.56 | $48.74 |
| 11.5% | $37.96 | $39.13 | $40.43 | $41.88 | $43.51 |
| 12.5% | $35.10 | $36.03 | $37.06 | $38.19 | $39.45 |
| 13.5% | $32.71 | $33.47 | $34.30 | $35.20 | $36.19 |
