Why we don't show a single “fair value” for DH
Even the conservative scenario ($4.68) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 7.6%/yr | 12.0% | $4.68 |
| Base case | 10.6%/yr | 11.0% | $5.91 |
| Optimistic | 13.6%/yr | 10.0% | $7.59 |
Current Price
$1.00
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$5.91
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for DH (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $37.6M · 0.11B shares · net debt $1.2M
Estimated Fair Value
$5.91
+491.7% vs $1.00
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 10.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $1.00; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.0% | $6.97 | $7.37 | $7.84 | $8.38 | $9.01 |
| 10.0% | $6.10 | $6.40 | $6.74 | $7.13 | $7.58 |
| 11.0% | $5.42 | $5.65 | $5.91 | $6.20 | $6.53 |
| 12.0% | $4.87 | $5.05 | $5.26 | $5.48 | $5.73 |
| 13.0% | $4.42 | $4.57 | $4.73 | $4.90 | $5.10 |
