TGM's two-stage DCF values Dollar General Corporation (DG) between $75.69 and $162.24 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $109.00. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$126.63 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +8.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.3%/yr | 8.5% | $75.69 |
| Base case | 5.3%/yr | 7.5% | $109.00 |
| Optimistic | 8.3%/yr | 6.5% | $162.24 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $275.60 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$126.63
Market-Implied Growth
+8.4%/yr
vs +5.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$75.69 – $162.24
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for DG (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.2B · 0.22B shares · net debt $3.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$109.00
-13.9% vs $126.63
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $126.63; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $146 | $166 | $193 | $231 | $287 |
| 6.5% | $113 | $125 | $141 | $160 | $186 |
| 7.5% | $91.46 | $99.44 | $109 | $121 | $135 |
| 8.5% | $75.86 | $81.45 | $87.96 | $95.65 | $105 |
| 9.5% | $64.16 | $68.27 | $72.95 | $78.34 | $84.62 |
