Dollar General Corporation (DG) DCF Valuation
Transparent DCF models put Dollar General Corporation (DG)'s fair value in a range of $73.98 – $312.65 — the low end is TGM's conservative base case (5% FCF growth, 10% discount), the high end the analyst consensus (FMP). Today's price of $109.38 sits within that range — roughly fairly valued on these assumptions.
Reverse DCF: at today's $109.38, the market is pricing in roughly +9.3%/yr free-cash-flow growth over the next decade (at a 10% required return) — versus its actual 5-year FCF CAGR of +10.8%. The price assumes a slowdown from its track record — a potential value signal if growth holds.
Current Price
$109.38
Fair-Value Range
$73.98 – $312.65
Market-Implied Growth
+9.3%/yr
vs +10.8% 5Y actual
DG DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $1.3B · 0.22B shares · net debt $5.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$73.98
-32.4% vs $109.38
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $109.38; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $97.41 | $104 | $111 | $120 | $130 |
| 9.0% | $80.49 | $84.69 | $89.54 | $95.21 | $102 |
| 10.0% | $67.60 | $70.59 | $73.98 | $77.85 | $82.32 |
| 11.0% | $57.46 | $59.66 | $62.11 | $64.86 | $67.99 |
| 12.0% | $49.30 | $50.94 | $52.76 | $54.79 | $57.05 |
About Dollar General Corporation
Dollar General Corporation is a prominent discount retail chain that offers a wide array of merchandise across the southern, southwestern, Midwestern, and eastern regions of the United States. Its extensive product assortment primarily features consumable items. This includes household essentials such as paper products, cleaning supplies, and laundry detergents; a wide array of food options, ranging from shelf-stable groceries like cereals, pasta, canned goods, condiments, and baking ingredients, to fresh and refrigerated perishables such as milk, eggs, bread, and frozen foods, as well as alcoholic beverages like beer and wine. The selection further encompasses popular snacks (candies, cookies, crackers, and carbonated drinks), health and beauty aids (over-the-counter medications, personal care items, cosmetics, dental, and foot care products), pet food and supplies, and tobacco products. Beyond consumables, Dollar General offers seasonal merchandise, which includes holiday decorations, toys, electronics, greeting cards, stationery, prepaid phone services and accessories, gardening tools, hardware, automotive items, and home office supplies. Customers can also find various home goods, from kitchenware and small appliances to lighting, storage solutions, frames, candles, craft materials, and soft furnishings for the kitchen, bed, and bath. Lastly, the company stocks a selection of apparel, featuring everyday clothing for infants, children, women, and men, along with socks, underwear, disposable diapers, shoes, and accessories. As of February 25, 2022, Dollar General operated an impressive 18,190 stores spread across 47 U.S. states. Originally established in 1939 as J.L. Turner & Son, Inc., the company adopted its current name, Dollar General Corporation, in 1968. Its corporate headquarters are situated in Goodlettsville, Tennessee.
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Discount Stores
- CEO
- Todd J. Vasos