Why we don't show a single “fair value” for DDOG
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($50.06) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $31.59 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $40.31 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $50.06 |
Current Price
$208.64
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$40.31
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for DDOG (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $734.1M · 0.36B shares · net debt $877.7M
Estimated Fair Value
$40.31
-80.7% vs $208.64
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $208.64; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $47.87 | $50.64 | $53.81 | $57.46 | $61.71 |
| 10.5% | $41.74 | $43.84 | $46.20 | $48.87 | $51.92 |
| 11.5% | $36.86 | $38.49 | $40.31 | $42.33 | $44.61 |
| 12.5% | $32.88 | $34.19 | $35.62 | $37.19 | $38.94 |
| 13.5% | $29.59 | $30.64 | $31.79 | $33.05 | $34.43 |
