TGM's two-stage DCF values Dropbox, Inc. (DBX) between $45.97 and $98.89 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $66.33. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$33.90 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -6.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.9%/yr | 8.5% | $45.97 |
| Base case | 5.9%/yr | 7.5% | $66.33 |
| Optimistic | 8.9%/yr | 6.5% | $98.89 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 2, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $157.26 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$33.90
Market-Implied Growth
-6.8%/yr
vs +7.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$45.97 – $98.89
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for DBX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $817.0M · 0.25B shares · net debt $2.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$66.33
+95.7% vs $33.90
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $33.90; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $89.11 | $101 | $118 | $141 | $176 |
| 6.5% | $68.99 | $76.41 | $85.68 | $97.59 | $113 |
| 7.5% | $55.59 | $60.48 | $66.33 | $73.48 | $82.41 |
| 8.5% | $46.03 | $49.46 | $53.45 | $58.16 | $63.80 |
| 9.5% | $38.87 | $41.38 | $44.25 | $47.55 | $51.40 |
